Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease. The quantity of platelets reduces in the body of the patient while it progresses. The patients are then suffuse with platelets so that the clotting capability of the blood doesn’t get compromised. If the treatment is not provided on time, the patient might face deadly consequences.
In the coming years, government of Pakistan feel anxious about dengue to get more life-threatening. To control dengue, government of Pakistan has planned to obtain the newest technology from Australia to combat dengue. It has also been agreed upon, that the preventive measures against Dengue will be start off from as soon as February of 2020. According to a local agreement, almost 53,805 dengue cases were reported into the country among which 95 patients died of the disease. 13,292 patients were admitted in Islamabad, 3,474 in Balochistan, 1,696 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, 7,876 in KPK, 16,657 in Sindh, and 10,118 in Lahore.
Executive Director of National Institute of Health, Major General Dr. Aamer Ikram said in an interview after considering the number of death and cases of dengue in the whole year, the institute will focus on predictive modeling so that the views for coming year could be estimated earlier.
Dr. Ikram said, our team went to United Kingdom for training on predictive modeling and now we believe that if all provincial governments take actions on time, dengue can be controlled. Furthermore, to control this viral disease, We have decided to send teams to Australia to get training on the recent technology. We will sign a contract of understanding with Australia by March 2020 as they has also agreed for the technology transfer.
Dr. Aamer said, the real-time investigation of the disease will occur in the coming years. He also stated that 10 scrutiny centers in regions were develop in the country. These labs for detecting dengue have also been started in Peshawar and Quetta. Further the government is planning to develop diagnostic labs in different cities of Pakistan like Gilgit, Karachi, Lahore, and Muzaffarabad, etc.
Predictive Modeling is a procedure that uses statistics to estimate outcomes. Each model is made up of many predictors, which are variables that are likely to effect future results. There are different types of predictive modeling techniques including simple linear equation, logistic regression or a complex neural network, construct by sophisticated software. As more data becomes available, the statistical analysis model is proved or changed.
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